2025 Valero Texas Open predictions, betting picks: Jordan Spieth among longshots to back at TPC San Antonio
The week before a major often features a PGA Tour field that's missing some of the biggest stars in the sport. However, that can create an opportunity for golfers few expected to emerge victorious, and for longshot bettors, there's a chance to find value there. The 2025 Valero Texas Open tees off from TPC San Antonio on Thursday, April 3, with the Masters following a week later. None of the last three Valero Texas Open winners entered with more than one previous PGA Tour victory, making it truly a tournament anyone can win.
Ludvig Aberg is the 12-1 favorite (bet $100 to win $1,200) in the latest 2025 Valero Texas Open odds, followed by Tommy Fleetwood (14-1), Corey Conners (18-1), Patrick Cantlay (20-1) and Hideki Matsuyama (20-1). Four of those five golfers have multiple PGA Tour victories, while Fleetwood is still searching for his first win on tour. Can Fleetwood finally break through this week, or will a longshot finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2025 Valero Texas Open? Akshay Bhatia, who's seeking to become the fifth player to win back-to-back years at the Valero Texas Open, is a 28-1 longshot to repeat. Bhatia will begin his title defense on Thursday at 2:14 p.m. ET, playing alongside Aberg and Maverick McNealy.
SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up nearly $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
Now that the 2025 Valero Texas Open field is locked in, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and revealed its longshot betting picks:
Jordan Spieth (22-1 at FanDuel)
Spieth had one of the biggest reliefs of his career at the Valero Texas Open in 2021 when he won his first tournament in nearly four years. That was an extremely difficult stretch for one of the most well-known names in golf, and it was one of the biggest surprises in the sport as Spieth won three tournaments in 2017 before going on the elongated winless streak. Spieth, who has 13 career PGA Tour wins, has made the cut in five of six tournaments this season, including two top-10 results.
The Texas native finished 10th in last year's Valero Texas Open for his fourth top-10 result over his last six events at TPC San Antonio. He's made the cut in seven of eight career Valero Texas Open events. The 31-year-old ranks 44th on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained, which isn't stellar, but it's significantly better than his 80th ranking last year. Given Spieth's career success at TPC San Antonio, the model projects value this weekend. FanDuel Sportsbook has Spieth priced at 22-1 odds.
Denny McCarthy (30-1)
McCarthy nearly claimed his first PGA Tour victory at last year's Valero Texas Open before falling to Akshay Bhatia in a playoff. Although he's still seeking that first win, McCarthy is coming off his fourth top-20 finish over his last five tournaments after placing T-14 at the Players Championship. He's eighth on the PGA Tour in Par 4s this season, which has helped him finish toward the top of leaderboards, and the 32-year-old has made the cut in all eight of his PGA Tour starts.
McCarthy shot a 9-under 63 on his final round of the Valero Texas Open last year to make a late run and force a playoff. McCarthy's putter has been a surprising weakness during the 2025 PGA Tour season. He ranked seventh in one-putt percentage, fourth in putts per round and 12th in putting average last season, and if the 32-year-old can drain some putts this week, he can make another run at taking home the Valero Texas Open title and return value in doing so.
Daniel Berger (40-1)
Berger has four career PGA Tour victories, but he's chasing his first win since 2021. He's finished in the top 25 in each of his last five tournaments, including T-2 at the Phoenix Open in early February. The 31-year-old is coming off a T-20 finish at the Players Championship.
He is 12th on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained this season and is driving the ball with precision in 2025. Berger is fifth in total driving and 10th in driving accuracy and can get out of trouble if needed, ranking 10th in scrambling and second in scrambling from the rough. His putter has failed him this season, but some timely putts in a 2025 Valero Texas Open field without the sport's elite and Berger can be this year's surprise longshot victor at TPC San Antonio.
More Valero Texas Open 2025 picks
You've seen the latest longshots from the model. Now, see the Valero Texas Open leaderboard, including forecasted finishes for Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, Corey Conners, Patrick Cantlay, and more. Visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 13 golf majors, including the last three Masters and three majors in 2024.
You can also view expert advice before locking in your PGA Tour picks. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Eric Cohen's best bets for a $1 million parlay, all from an expert who correctly predicted the pre-tournament outright winner in seven events over the last two seasons, for the 2025 Valero Texas Open.
2025 Valero Texas Open odds, favorites
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